A decade following the UK entered into a hasty referendum that divided the country and unleashed turmoil, a warning comes from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking disturbances for which no one is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two leading commentators from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a potentially tense and seismic referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gain traction rapidly," the commentator stated. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our islands remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have examined the political, economic and cultural reasons for any structural alteration in a book, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the matter with a roadshow of public talks that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles everyone, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We should prevent a referendum on a binary, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been clarified because then you land with an highly polarised community where people who have lost are unable to accept defeat and the people who have won lack clarity quite what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue such a time is approaching, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and unionists downplay the possibility, leaving it unclear if and when there will be a national vote.
Lack of Serious Debate
Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has hidden the shortage of serious debate, said the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the idea but the concrete planning which could extend past that to realise it is mostly absent. Much has occurred in universities but scarcely any government figures or campaigners are willing to participate with the fundamentals. As an example, what type of nation should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, no writer supports unity or the current situation. Both composes two articles that seek neutrality in presenting the argument for a unified Ireland and the case against, assembling economic and social data, historical precedents and structural examples.
Discussions range over flags and symbols, duties, health services, retirement funds, public liabilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The goal is to educate and encourage dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there hasn't quite been a debate," said O’Toole. "Discussion indicates an recognition of the notion that there could be valid points on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters report they support unity but oppose greater financial contributions or implementing a new flag to acknowledge unionists' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin should establish what the plan from nationalist groups is other than just stating: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we love you'," remarked O’Toole.
Likelihood of Referendum
The journalist believes a national vote in his generation is possible and that it might occur abruptly. "There might be just a reckless or a bad or a negligent official who says: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, justified arguments, he commented. "One side will win in this matter and the other side will in the end not succeed but each side has possesses important lessons to learn from the alternative positions."
Appeal for Wider Debate
Westminster should engage with the discussion, stated O’Toole. "This involves Britain. It's a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish question."
