🔗 Share this article

Usually, the NFL's Coach of the Year award follows a straightforward formula. It commonly acts as a form of mea culpa. Our apologies we underestimated your franchise in our pre-campaign projections.

Theoretically, it's a clear-cut line: the coach who orchestrated the most dramatic resurgence receives the prize. However, it sparks an yearly discussion about preseason outlooks and whether we're actually honoring superior leadership or merely the biggest upset.

Yet the current field is profoundly different. The list of nominees is remarkably talented. It has been the year of resurgences. The league has been messy, with recent division winners falling away and recent also-rans ascending collectively. In an normal season, a coach guiding the Denver Broncos to the top of the AFC would make him the clear favorite. But in such a turbulent and entertaining season, he's facing five other outstanding coaches.

Here is how the projected vote could shake out.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, Chicago Bears, 11-5

Voters for Coach of the Year voters adore signal-callers. They always have. A certain coach in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. If you transform a franchise QB, you're halfway home.

Ben Johnson hasn't just corrected his young quarterback; he's freed him. In the right system, Williams has been afforded the opportunity to demonstrate his otherworldly talent. Since midseason onward, the Bears rank number four in offensive EPA per play. This isn't a hot streak – it's sustained excellence. Under Johnson, the quarterback has become increasingly decisive, far less reckless, and has willingly submitted to the scheme instead of freelancing. It is an attack built solely in Johnson's image: a physical run game, a heavy dose of play-action and a innovative passing attack that frees wide-open receivers all over the field. The QB has taken advantage. And when openings weren't there, he's been capable to spin big plays out of broken plays.

The coach came to the Bears with a specific offensive blueprint. Virtually each decision – overhauling the trenches, featuring the tight ends, turning the QB into a rhythm thrower – has worked. This is uncommon for a rookie head coach. And it's rarer still for a leader who entered the organization with the level of expectations Johnson did. For consecutive straight offseasons, he was the top candidate on the head coaching carousel. However when it comes to selecting a head coach, there are no guarantees. Somehow, Johnson has met expectations – and even exceeded them. He's demonstrated not only to be a offensive dork but the kind of culture builder that can breathe new life into an franchise.

During a normal season, Johnson would be the overwhelming choice. Yet this is not a typical campaign!

The area where Johnson's candidacy runs slightly unstuck is on the defensive side. The Chicago defense presently rank 25th in defensive success rate. They are living on takeaways, and takeaways are famously inconsistent. Coaches can stress creating turnovers, but nobody can guarantee it. He is on the ballot because the offense is legitimate. He's not higher because variance is doing too much of the defensive work. With a couple bounces of the ball, the Bears would be two victories behind. It's been an remarkable transformation, and the core is in place for sustained winning. But Johnson comes up short in this ranking.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, Jacksonville Jaguars, Their Record

The Jaguars' coach is in a similar situation to Johnson. He's a fellow rookie head coach who has masterminded a swift resurgence. During the crucial final weeks of the season, he has his franchise quarterback playing the most complete all-around football of his professional life. And he's also overseen the remaking of a defensive unit that now ranks fifth in the NFL in Expected Points Added per play.

Even more notably, Coen has mastered the off-field stuff, which wasn't a certainty after his initial public introduction and some of his offseason moves.

The coach took over Jacksonville with an exceptionally inexperienced coaching staff. Unlike other coaches, who surrounded themselves with the ideal staff cocktail of youth and experience, Coen bet on first-timers. Starting with the leader on down to assistants to assistant coaches, the Jags are stocked with first-timers. That kind of approach is exciting in theory, but frequently fails in reality – as past failures are a cautionary tale – because everybody is figuring out a their job on the fly. Yet he has pulled the entire group and all elements into sync.

Following an initial hot start, there was a risk that the campaign would veer off the track. A mid-year collapse had the Jags wobbling again. That's typically when leaders panic and change too much. He didn't. Rather, he streamlined things. The offense stopped pursuing home-run plays and started hunting sustainable ones. Coen recentered the attack around key players and the running game, and encouraged Lawrence to use his legs more often.

The results are obvious. The Jaguars have won multiple games in a row and will be the conference's number three playoff seed. Coen gets the tiniest knock in the standings because he inherited a talented team, but he has demonstrated he can get the most out of that roster.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, His Team, Their Record

Each Coach of the Year argument has a pivotal moment. For Mike Macdonald, it was his QB choice.

Moving on from a veteran, bringing in a new signal-caller and partnering him with an new offensive coordinator could have derailed the campaign in the early weeks. Rather, it made it. Through the middle point of the year, the acquisition was an Most Valuable Player contender. He has cooled off after that hot streak, dropping to 23rd in EPA per pass attempt over the second half of the schedule, placing him only a single place ahead of peers.

Still